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Yaypan vs Pakhtakor II Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Matchday 16 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 14:00

Yaypan

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Pakhtakor II

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-14.5%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.3%1-19.5%1-24.4%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.5%3-16.9%3-23.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-15.8%4+-22.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 82.0% 1.22 -31.8%

Draw 22.2% 20.0% 5.00 +6.6%

Away win 21.9% 10.0% 10.00 +71.4%

Over 2.5 59.7% 57.1% 1.75 +4.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 43.3% 2.31 -15.4%

BTTS 54.7% 54.1% 1.85 +1.2%

Home O1.5 59.6% 74.1% 1.35 -19.5%

Away O1.5 24.2% 18.9% 5.30 +17.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.7%

H 56% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–0✓ 10.8%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 1–2 4.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yaypan2.1

Pakhtakor II0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

YAYPAN · PPG 1.29

PAKHTAKOR II · PPG 0.57

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.17 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Yaypan (H) 55.9%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -31.8%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +6.6%

Pakhtakor II (A) 21.9%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +71.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yaypan face Pakhtakor II in Uzbekistan - Pro League A on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yaypan a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Pakhtakor II 22%, so Yaypan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Yaypan and 0.9 for Pakhtakor II (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yaypan are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.57 for Pakhtakor II. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +70.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Yaypan vs Pakhtakor II Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Match Preview & Prediction

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