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Aral vs Metalourg Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Matchday 13 ·Wednesday, August 5, 2026, 13:00

Aral

PPG 3.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Metalourg

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-14.9%0-22.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.1%1-19.9%1-25.4%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.1%3-16.6%3-23.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-15.3%4+-22.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% — — —

Draw 22.3% — — —

Away win 21.1% — — —

Over 2.5 63.3% — — —

Over 3.5 39.2% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 55.4% — — —

Away O1.5 35.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 56% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.1%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aral2.0

Metalourg1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 39.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ARAL · PPG 3.00

METALOURG · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.92 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Aral (H) 56.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Metalourg (A) 21.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Aral face Metalourg in Uzbekistan - Pro League A on Wednesday, August 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aral a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Metalourg 21%, so Aral are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Aral and 1.1 for Metalourg (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aral are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.20 for Metalourg.

Aral vs Metalourg Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Match Preview & Prediction

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