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Lochin vs Qiziriq Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Matchday 14 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 12:30

Lochin

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Qiziriq

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 73.8% vs bookmaker-implied 89.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-12.8%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.2%1-16.9%1-22.2%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.9%2-18.6%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.4%3-17.1%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-012.8%4+-17.9%4+-22.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.8% 89.3% 1.12 -17.3%

Draw 17.9% 12.5% 8.00 +25.9%

Away win 8.3% 7.7% 13.00 +4.7%

Over 2.5 60.2% 75.2% 1.33 -19.9%

Over 3.5 36.8% 55.2% 1.81 -33.4%

BTTS 47.7% 46.9% 2.13 +1.6%

Home O1.5 63.3% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% 14.6% 6.85 +10.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.7%

H 74% / xG 2.5-0.6 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.9%

#2 3–0 11.4%

#3 1–0 11.2%

#4 2–1✓ 8.6%

#5 1–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lochin2.5

Qiziriq0.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LOCHIN · PPG 1.50

QIZIRIQ · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.86 for Home, form 1.50 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Lochin (H) 73.8%

ODDS 1.12 · IMPLIED 89.3% EV -17.3%

Draw 17.9%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +25.9%

Qiziriq (A) 8.3%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +4.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lochin face Qiziriq in Uzbekistan - Pro League A on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lochin a 74% chance, the draw 18% and Qiziriq 8%, so Lochin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Lochin and 0.6 for Qiziriq (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lochin are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.50 for Qiziriq. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +28.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Lochin vs Qiziriq Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Match Preview & Prediction

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