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Pakhtakor II vs Qiziriq Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Matchday 17 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 12:00

Pakhtakor II

PPG 0.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Qiziriq

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-19.8%0-26.4%0-32.8%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.7%1-112.6%1-28.2%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.2%2-18.1%2-25.3%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.7%3-13.5%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.5% 47.6% 2.10 -19.1%

Draw 25.9% 30.3% 3.30 -8.7%

Away win 35.5% 35.7% 2.80 -0.6%

Over 2.5 53.5% 58.8% 1.70 -9.0%

Over 3.5 31.5% 41.2% 2.43 -23.4%

BTTS 55.0% 63.7% 1.57 -13.7%

Home O1.5 37.2% 53.8% 1.86 -30.8%

Away O1.5 37.9% 43.7% 2.29 -13.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.0%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 2–1 8.1%

#3 1–0 9.7%

#4 1–2 8.2%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pakhtakor II1.3

Qiziriq1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PAKHTAKOR II · PPG 0.38

QIZIRIQ · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Pakhtakor II (H) 38.5%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -19.1%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -8.7%

Qiziriq (A) 35.5%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -0.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pakhtakor II face Qiziriq in Uzbekistan - Pro League A on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pakhtakor II a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Qiziriq 36%, so Pakhtakor II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Pakhtakor II and 1.3 for Qiziriq (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pakhtakor II are averaging 0.38 points per game versus 0.44 for Qiziriq. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +0.2%. This match finished 3-0.

Pakhtakor II vs Qiziriq Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Match Preview & Prediction

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