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Metalourg vs Yaypan Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Matchday 14 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 14:00

Metalourg

PPG 2.14 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Yaypan

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 80.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0% — a clear edge.

+16.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-11.8%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-07.8%1-15.4%1-21.9%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.5%2-17.9%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.2%3-17.7%3-22.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-016.9%4+-111.7%4+-24.0%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.5% 78.7% 1.27 -2.8%

Draw 15.8% 19.0% 5.25 -10.2%

Away win 7.7% 13.3% 7.50 -25.4%

Over 2.5 65.5% 66.7% 1.50 -1.8%

Over 3.5 43.0% 45.7% 2.19 -5.8%

BTTS 50.8% 53.5% 1.87 -5.0%

Home O1.5 80.3% 69.0% 1.45 +16.4%

Away O1.5 17.2% 20.4% 4.90 -9.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob50.8%

H 76% / xG 2.9-0.7 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.5%

#2 3–0 11.2%

#3 4–0 8.2%

#4 2–1 7.9%

#5 3–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Metalourg2.9

Yaypan0.7

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.5% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

METALOURG · PPG 2.14

YAYPAN · PPG 0.83

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.24 for Home, form 2.14 vs 0.83 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Metalourg (H) 76.5%

ODDS 1.27 · IMPLIED 78.7% EV -2.8%

Draw 15.8%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -10.2%

Yaypan (A) 7.7%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV -25.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Metalourg face Yaypan in Uzbekistan - Pro League A on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Metalourg a 77% chance, the draw 16% and Yaypan 8%, so Metalourg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Metalourg and 0.7 for Yaypan (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Metalourg are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 0.83 for Yaypan. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +16.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Metalourg vs Yaypan Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Match Preview & Prediction

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