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Respublika FA vs Gazalkent Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Matchday 13 ·Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 14:00

Respublika FA

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gazalkent

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.00, combined xG 2.50 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-110.3%0-26.4%0-32.7%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.3%1-112.8%1-28.0%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.4%2-18.0%2-25.0%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.7%3-13.3%3-22.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.7% — — —

Draw 27.2% — — —

Away win 35.1% — — —

Over 2.5 51.5% — — —

Over 3.5 29.2% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 34.2% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 38% / xG 1.2-1.2 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.2%

#3 1–0 10.3%

#4 0–1 10.3%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Respublika FA1.3

Gazalkent1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

RESPUBLIKA FA · PPG 1.40

GAZALKENT · PPG 2.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.00, combined xG 2.50 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Respublika FA (H) 37.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Gazalkent (A) 35.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Respublika FA face Gazalkent in Uzbekistan - Pro League A on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Respublika FA a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Gazalkent 35%, so Respublika FA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Respublika FA and 1.2 for Gazalkent (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Respublika FA are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 2.20 for Gazalkent.

Respublika FA vs Gazalkent Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Match Preview & Prediction

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