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Respublika FA vs Metalourg Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 14:00

Respublika FA

PPG 1.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Metalourg

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

xG gap -0.93 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-111.5%0-210.7%0-36.6%0-4+4.7%1 1-05.7%1-110.7%1-29.9%1-36.1%1-4+4.3%2 2-02.7%2-14.9%2-24.6%2-32.8%2-4+2.0%3 3-00.8%3-11.5%3-21.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.0% — — —

Draw 22.0% — — —

Away win 55.0% — — —

Over 2.5 53.7% — — —

Over 3.5 31.8% — — —

BTTS 54.2% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 53.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob54.2%

A 55% / xG 0.9-1.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 0–2 10.7%

#3 0–1 11.5%

#4 1–2 9.9%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Respublika FA0.9

Metalourg1.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

RESPUBLIKA FA · PPG 1.14

METALOURG · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.93 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Respublika FA (H) 23.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Metalourg (A) 55.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Respublika FA face Metalourg in Uzbekistan - Pro League A on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Respublika FA a 23% chance, the draw 22% and Metalourg 55%, so Metalourg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Respublika FA and 1.9 for Metalourg (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Respublika FA are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.00 for Metalourg.

Respublika FA vs Metalourg Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Match Preview & Prediction

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