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Avondale vs Preston Lions Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Quarter-finals ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 04:00

Avondale

PPG 2.23 · HOME

UPCOMING

Preston Lions

PPG 2.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.2% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-17.7%0-25.1%0-32.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.8%1-111.7%1-27.8%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.7%2-18.9%2-25.9%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.4%3-14.5%3-23.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.5% 44.4% 2.25 -6.6%

Draw 23.8% 28.6% 3.50 -10.0%

Away win 34.8% 37.0% 2.70 -6.0%

Over 2.5 53.8% 60.6% 1.65 -11.2%

Over 3.5 32.7% 38.2% 2.62 -14.3%

BTTS 56.2% 66.7% 1.50 -15.7%

Home O1.5 39.9% 51.8% 1.93 -23.0%

Away O1.5 42.2% 46.5% 2.15 -9.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 115 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob56.2%

H 42% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 1–0 8.8%

#5 2–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Avondale1.5

Preston Lions1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AVONDALE · PPG 2.23

PRESTON LIONS · PPG 2.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.19 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Avondale (H) 41.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -6.6%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.0%

Preston Lions (A) 34.8%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -6.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Avondale face Preston Lions in Australia - NPL Victoria on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Avondale a 42% chance, the draw 24% and Preston Lions 35%, so Avondale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Avondale and 1.3 for Preston Lions (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Avondale are averaging 2.23 points per game versus 2.08 for Preston Lions.

Avondale vs Preston Lions Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - NPL Victoria Predictions