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VfB Lubeck vs Phonix Lubeck Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

North - 30 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:00

VfB Lubeck

PPG 1.46 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Phonix Lubeck

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-18.5%0-28.1%0-35.2%0-4+3.9%1 1-05.3%1-110.2%1-29.8%1-36.3%1-4+4.7%2 2-03.2%2-16.1%2-25.9%2-33.8%2-4+2.8%3 3-01.3%3-12.4%3-22.3%3-31.5%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.6% 43.5% 2.30 -45.7%

Draw 22.2% 27.0% 3.70 -17.9%

Away win 54.2% 40.0% 2.50 +35.5%

Over 2.5 60.4% 66.7% 1.50 -9.4%

Over 3.5 38.0% 43.5% 2.30 -12.6%

BTTS 59.7% 70.4% 1.42 -15.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob59.7%

A 54% / xG 1.2-1.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–1 8.5%

#4 0–2 8.1%

#5 1–3 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

VfB Lubeck1.2

Phonix Lubeck1.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 38.0%

Form & verdict PPG

VFB LUBECK · PPG 1.46

PHONIX LUBECK · PPG 1.29

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.46), Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

VfB Lubeck (H) 23.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -45.7%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -17.9%

Phonix Lubeck (A) 54.2%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +35.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

VfB Lubeck face Phonix Lubeck in Germany - Regionalliga - Nord on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives VfB Lubeck a 24% chance, the draw 22% and Phonix Lubeck 54%, so Phonix Lubeck are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for VfB Lubeck and 1.9 for Phonix Lubeck (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, VfB Lubeck are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 1.29 for Phonix Lubeck. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +35.5%. This match finished 3-1.

VfB Lubeck vs Phonix Lubeck Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

Match Preview & Prediction

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