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Gimhae City vs Jeonnam Dragons Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 10:00

Gimhae City

PPG 0.20 · HOME

LAST 5

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UPCOMING

Jeonnam Dragons

PPG 0.54 · AWAY

LAST 5

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// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-110.9%0-28.2%0-34.1%0-4+2.2%1 1-08.1%1-112.2%1-29.2%1-34.6%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.5%2-16.8%2-25.2%2-32.6%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.7%3-12.6%3-21.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.9% 35.1% 2.85 -12.3%

Draw 24.8% 29.9% 3.35 -10.2%

Away win 47.3% 43.5% 2.30 +8.8%

Over 2.5 51.1% 55.6% 1.80 -8.0%

Over 3.5 31.6% 33.3% 3.00 -5.2%

BTTS 52.9% 61.7% 1.62 -14.3%

Home O1.5 31.2% 40.8% 2.45 -23.6%

Away O1.5 44.7% 46.5% 2.15 -3.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -25.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.9%

A 47% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 0–1 10.9%

#4 0–2 8.2%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimhae City1.1

Jeonnam Dragons1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMHAE CITY · PPG 0.20

JEONNAM DRAGONS · PPG 0.54

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gimhae City (H) 27.9%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -12.3%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.2%

Jeonnam Dragons (A) 47.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimhae City face Jeonnam Dragons in South Korea - K League 2 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimhae City a 28% chance, the draw 25% and Jeonnam Dragons 47%, so Jeonnam Dragons are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Gimhae City and 1.5 for Jeonnam Dragons (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimhae City are averaging 0.20 points per game versus 0.54 for Jeonnam Dragons. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +11.8%.

Gimhae City vs Jeonnam Dragons Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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