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Cheonan City vs Hwaseong Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 10:00

Cheonan City

PPG 1.09 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLL

UPCOMING

Hwaseong

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-114.2%0-28.8%0-33.7%0-4+1.5%1 1-010.5%1-113.1%1-28.2%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-04.9%2-16.1%2-23.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.5%3-11.9%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.9% 28.6% 3.50 +0.7%

Draw 28.4% 29.9% 3.35 -2.9%

Away win 42.7% 50.0% 2.00 -14.6%

Over 2.5 42.7% 52.6% 1.90 -18.9%

Over 3.5 20.9% 31.3% 3.20 -19.9%

BTTS 48.0% 59.9% 1.67 -19.8%

Home O1.5 30.8% 33.9% 2.95 -9.1%

Away O1.5 36.8% 50.0% 2.00 -26.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -25.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.0%

A 43% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–1 14.2%

#3 0–0 11.4%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 0–2 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cheonan City0.9

Hwaseong1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CHEONAN CITY · PPG 1.09

HWASEONG · PPG 1.43

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.32, combined xG 2.18 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cheonan City (H) 28.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +0.7%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -2.9%

Hwaseong (A) 42.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -14.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cheonan City face Hwaseong in South Korea - K League 2 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cheonan City a 29% chance, the draw 28% and Hwaseong 43%, so Hwaseong are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Cheonan City and 1.2 for Hwaseong (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cheonan City are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 1.43 for Hwaseong.

Cheonan City vs Hwaseong Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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