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Yongin City vs Suwon City FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 10:00

Yongin City

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLW

UPCOMING

Suwon City FC

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-17.8%0-27.2%0-34.4%0-4+3.0%1 1-05.7%1-110.4%1-29.5%1-35.8%1-4+4.0%2 2-03.7%2-16.8%2-26.3%2-33.8%2-4+2.6%3 3-01.6%3-13.0%3-22.8%3-31.7%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.8% 27.4% 3.65 +12.4%

Draw 24.1% 28.2% 3.55 -8.7%

Away win 45.1% 52.6% 1.90 -14.3%

Over 2.5 60.7% 59.9% 1.67 +1.4%

Over 3.5 37.5% 37.7% 2.65 -0.6%

BTTS 61.5% 64.5% 1.55 -4.7%

Home O1.5 38.5% 37.0% 2.70 +4.0%

Away O1.5 54.0% 56.5% 1.77 -4.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -25.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob61.5%

A 45% / xG 1.3-1.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 2–1 6.8%

#4 0–2 7.2%

#5 0–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yongin City1.3

Suwon City FC1.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

YONGIN CITY · PPG 1.00

SUWON CITY FC · PPG 1.75

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.51 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Yongin City (H) 30.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +12.4%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.7%

Suwon City FC (A) 45.1%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -14.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yongin City face Suwon City FC in South Korea - K League 2 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yongin City a 31% chance, the draw 24% and Suwon City FC 45%, so Suwon City FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Yongin City and 1.8 for Suwon City FC (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yongin City are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.75 for Suwon City FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +15.3%.

Yongin City vs Suwon City FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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