Today / South Korea - K League 2 / Paju Citizen vs Daegu FC

Paju Citizen vs Daegu FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Matchday 25 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 10:30

Paju Citizen

PPG 0.91 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDL

UPCOMING

Daegu FC

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-111.0%0-28.4%0-34.2%0-4+2.3%1 1-08.0%1-112.2%1-29.3%1-34.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.4%2-16.7%2-25.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.6%3-12.5%3-21.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.8% 21.7% 4.60 +22.3%

Draw 25.5% 25.3% 3.95 +0.4%

Away win 44.8% 61.7% 1.62 -27.4%

Over 2.5 51.9% 63.7% 1.57 -18.5%

Over 3.5 31.6% 40.8% 2.45 -22.6%

BTTS 53.9% 63.7% 1.57 -15.4%

Home O1.5 30.9% 33.9% 2.95 -8.8%

Away O1.5 47.8% 63.7% 1.57 -24.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -25.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob53.9%

A 45% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–1 11.0%

#4 0–2 8.4%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paju Citizen1.1

Daegu FC1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PAJU CITIZEN · PPG 0.91

DAEGU FC · PPG 1.73

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Paju Citizen (H) 29.8%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +22.3%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +0.4%

Daegu FC (A) 44.8%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -27.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paju Citizen face Daegu FC in South Korea - K League 2 on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paju Citizen a 30% chance, the draw 26% and Daegu FC 45%, so Daegu FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Paju Citizen and 1.5 for Daegu FC (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paju Citizen are averaging 0.91 points per game versus 1.73 for Daegu FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +6.8%.

Paju Citizen vs Daegu FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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