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Busan I Park vs Ansan Greeners Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 10:00

Busan I Park

PPG 1.91 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDDL

UPCOMING

Ansan Greeners

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-14.0%0-22.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.9%1-18.8%1-24.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.9%2-19.8%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.4%3-17.3%3-23.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-16.8%4+-23.4%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.3% 69.4% 1.44 -17.5%

Draw 21.3% 22.7% 4.40 -3.8%

Away win 21.4% 16.0% 6.25 +20.3%

Over 2.5 60.6% 62.5% 1.60 -3.0%

Over 3.5 37.6% 39.2% 2.55 -4.1%

BTTS 55.9% 57.8% 1.73 -3.3%

Home O1.5 66.3% 67.6% 1.48 -1.9%

Away O1.5 29.6% 26.3% 3.80 +7.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -25.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.9%

H 57% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–0 9.9%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 8.9%

#5 3–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Busan I Park2.2

Ansan Greeners1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.6% · O3.5 PROB 37.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BUSAN I PARK · PPG 1.91

ANSAN GREENERS · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.23 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Busan I Park (H) 57.3%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -17.5%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -3.8%

Ansan Greeners (A) 21.4%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +20.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Busan I Park face Ansan Greeners in South Korea - K League 2 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Busan I Park a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Ansan Greeners 21%, so Busan I Park are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Busan I Park and 1.0 for Ansan Greeners (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Busan I Park are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 1.22 for Ansan Greeners. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +16.1%.

Busan I Park vs Ansan Greeners Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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