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Gimpo Citizen vs Seongnam FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 10:00

Gimpo Citizen

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWDL

UPCOMING

Seongnam FC

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-110.6%0-25.5%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.5%1-113.2%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.8%2-18.2%2-24.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.2%3-13.4%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.3% 48.8% 2.05 -13.3%

Draw 27.4% 33.3% 3.00 -10.7%

Away win 30.3% 30.3% 3.30 -0.0%

Over 2.5 50.4% 48.8% 2.05 +3.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.7% 3.75 +4.6%

BTTS 52.9% 55.6% 1.80 -4.8%

Home O1.5 35.9% 47.6% 2.10 -24.6%

Away O1.5 32.5% 29.4% 3.40 +10.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -25.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 42% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 0–0 10.1%

#4 2–1 8.2%

#5 0–1 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimpo Citizen1.2

Seongnam FC1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMPO CITIZEN · PPG 1.00

SEONGNAM FC · PPG 1.09

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

55%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.20, combined xG 2.30 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gimpo Citizen (H) 42.3%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -13.3%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.7%

Seongnam FC (A) 30.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -0.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimpo Citizen face Seongnam FC in South Korea - K League 2 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimpo Citizen a 42% chance, the draw 27% and Seongnam FC 30%, so Gimpo Citizen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Gimpo Citizen and 1.1 for Seongnam FC (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimpo Citizen are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.09 for Seongnam FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +19.6%.

Gimpo Citizen vs Seongnam FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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