Today / South Korea - K League 2 / Suwon City FC vs Busan I Park

Suwon City FC vs Busan I Park Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 10:30

Suwon City FC

PPG 2.11 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Busan I Park

PPG 1.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-14.2%0-22.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-06.7%1-18.9%1-26.0%1-32.6%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.1%2-19.5%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.0%3-16.7%3-24.5%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-15.8%4+-23.9%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 48.8% 2.05 +8.8%

Draw 22.9% 28.6% 3.50 -11.9%

Away win 24.0% 32.3% 3.10 -15.4%

Over 2.5 62.0% 63.7% 1.57 -2.7%

Over 3.5 39.3% 41.7% 2.40 -5.7%

BTTS 60.1% 69.0% 1.45 -12.9%

Home O1.5 59.6% 56.5% 1.77 +5.5%

Away O1.5 40.9% 44.4% 2.25 -8.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -25.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.1%

H 53% / xG 2.1-1.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1✓ 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.1%

#4 3–1 6.7%

#5 1–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Suwon City FC2.1

Busan I Park1.3

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SUWON CITY FC · PPG 2.11

BUSAN I PARK · PPG 1.55

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Suwon City FC (H) 53.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +8.8%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.9%

Busan I Park (A) 24.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Suwon City FC face Busan I Park in South Korea - K League 2 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Suwon City FC a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Busan I Park 24%, so Suwon City FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Suwon City FC and 1.3 for Busan I Park (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Suwon City FC are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 1.55 for Busan I Park. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +23.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Suwon City FC vs Busan I Park Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More South Korea - K League 2 Predictions