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Eastern United vs Salisbury United Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Matchday 19 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 10:15

Eastern United

PPG 1.22 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWL

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Salisbury United

PPG 0.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 59% chance

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-15.9%0-23.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.8%1-110.8%1-25.4%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.9%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.0%3-16.0%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-14.1%4+-22.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 41.7% 2.40 +28.4%

Draw 24.6% 30.8% 3.25 -12.0%

Away win 21.9% 40.8% 2.45 -27.8%

Over 2.5 53.9% 61.7% 1.62 -12.7%

Over 3.5 32.8% 40.7% 2.46 -19.3%

BTTS 52.7% 66.7% 1.50 -20.9%

Home O1.5 54.3% 49.8% 2.01 +9.1%

Away O1.5 30.1% 49.0% 2.04 -38.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -17.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.7%

H 54% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eastern United1.8

Salisbury United1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

EASTERN UNITED · PPG 1.22

SALISBURY UNITED · PPG 0.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

59%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Eastern United (H) 53.5%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +28.4%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.0%

Salisbury United (A) 21.9%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -27.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eastern United face Salisbury United in Australia - South Australia State League 1 on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eastern United a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Salisbury United 22%, so Eastern United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Eastern United and 1.0 for Salisbury United (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eastern United are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 0.12 for Salisbury United. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +27.8%. This match finished 0-3.

Eastern United vs Salisbury United Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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