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Eastern United vs Salisbury United Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Regular Season - 19 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 10:15

Eastern United

PPG 1.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

Salisbury United

PPG 0.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-16.3%0-23.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.4%1-111.1%1-25.4%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.8%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.9%3-15.8%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.8%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 46.5% 2.15 +14.8%

Draw 24.6% 25.0% 4.00 -1.0%

Away win 22.1% 40.0% 2.50 -26.9%

Over 2.5 53.7% 66.7% 1.50 -19.4%

Over 3.5 32.8% 46.7% 2.14 -29.8%

BTTS 52.3% 71.4% 1.40 -26.8%

Home O1.5 53.5% 55.9% 1.79 -4.2%

Away O1.5 29.2% 51.8% 1.93 -26.2%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 11.4%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eastern United1.8

Salisbury United1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

EASTERN UNITED · PPG 1.22

SALISBURY UNITED · PPG 0.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Eastern United (H) 53.4%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +14.8%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -1.0%

Salisbury United (A) 22.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -26.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eastern United face Salisbury United in Australia - South Australia State League 1 on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eastern United a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Salisbury United 22%, so Eastern United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Eastern United and 1.0 for Salisbury United (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eastern United are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 0.12 for Salisbury United. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.7%.

Eastern United vs Salisbury United Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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