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Adelaide Raiders vs Adelaide Blue Eagles Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Semi-finals ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 05:30

Adelaide Raiders

PPG 2.45 · HOME

UPCOMING

Adelaide Blue Eagles

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-12.7%0-21.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.8%1-17.0%1-23.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.9%2-19.2%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.8%3-18.0%3-24.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-09.6%4+-19.9%4+-25.1%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.3% 54.1% 1.85 +20.8%

Draw 17.7% 25.0% 4.00 -17.5%

Away win 17.1% 32.3% 3.10 -28.2%

Over 2.5 68.4% 65.4% 1.53 +4.7%

Over 3.5 45.0% 45.2% 2.21 -0.5%

BTTS 61.5% 69.4% 1.44 -11.4%

Home O1.5 66.3% 61.7% 1.62 +7.4%

Away O1.5 32.1% 43.5% 2.30 -26.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -31.6%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob61.5%

H 65% / xG 2.6-1.0 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.2%

#2 2–0 8.9%

#3 1–1 7.0%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 3–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide Raiders2.6

Adelaide Blue Eagles1.0

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE RAIDERS · PPG 2.45

ADELAIDE BLUE EAGLES · PPG 1.42

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.59 for Home, form 2.45 vs 1.42 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide Raiders (H) 65.3%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +20.8%

Draw 17.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -17.5%

Adelaide Blue Eagles (A) 17.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -28.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide Raiders face Adelaide Blue Eagles in Australia - South Australia State League 1 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide Raiders a 65% chance, the draw 18% and Adelaide Blue Eagles 17%, so Adelaide Raiders are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Adelaide Raiders and 1.0 for Adelaide Blue Eagles (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide Raiders are averaging 2.45 points per game versus 1.42 for Adelaide Blue Eagles. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +40.7%.

Adelaide Raiders vs Adelaide Blue Eagles Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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