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Fulham United vs Adelaide Blue Eagles Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Quarter-finals ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 07:30

Fulham United

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Adelaide Blue Eagles

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-14.2%0-22.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-06.9%1-19.0%1-25.8%1-32.5%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.4%2-19.6%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.2%3-16.8%3-24.4%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-15.9%4+-23.8%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 47.6% 2.10 +10.7%

Draw 22.4% 30.8% 3.25 -16.3%

Away win 24.9% 34.5% 2.90 -16.7%

Over 2.5 62.6% 61.7% 1.62 +1.4%

Over 3.5 39.4% 39.2% 2.55 +0.5%

BTTS 61.3% 66.7% 1.50 -8.1%

Home O1.5 59.6% 53.5% 1.87 +11.5%

Away O1.5 38.2% 43.5% 2.30 -12.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -31.6%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.3%

H 53% / xG 2.1-1.3 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.4%

#4 1–2 5.8%

#5 3–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fulham United2.1

Adelaide Blue Eagles1.3

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FULHAM UNITED · PPG 1.64

ADELAIDE BLUE EAGLES · PPG 1.27

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.83 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fulham United (H) 52.7%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +10.7%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -16.3%

Adelaide Blue Eagles (A) 24.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -16.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fulham United face Adelaide Blue Eagles in Australia - South Australia State League 1 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fulham United a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Adelaide Blue Eagles 25%, so Fulham United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Fulham United and 1.3 for Adelaide Blue Eagles (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fulham United are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.27 for Adelaide Blue Eagles. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +11.5%. This match finished 2-3.

Fulham United vs Adelaide Blue Eagles Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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