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Adelaide Cobras vs Salisbury United Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 07:30

Adelaide Cobras

PPG 0.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Salisbury United

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-16.4%0-24.0%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.7%1-111.0%1-26.9%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.5%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.3%3-15.4%3-23.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.4%4+-22.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% — — —

Draw 24.7% — — —

Away win 29.7% — — —

Over 2.5 56.4% — — —

Over 3.5 34.4% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 36.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.5%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.5%

#4 1–0 8.7%

#5 1–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide Cobras1.7

Salisbury United1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.4% · O3.5 PROB 34.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE COBRAS · PPG 0.40

SALISBURY UNITED · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.46 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide Cobras (H) 45.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Salisbury United (A) 29.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide Cobras face Salisbury United in Australia - South Australia State League 1 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide Cobras a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Salisbury United 30%, so Adelaide Cobras are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Adelaide Cobras and 1.3 for Salisbury United (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide Cobras are averaging 0.40 points per game versus 0.40 for Salisbury United.

Adelaide Cobras vs Salisbury United Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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