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Modbury Jets vs Adelaide Olympic Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Semi-finals ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 05:30

Modbury Jets

PPG 2.27 · HOME

UPCOMING

Adelaide Olympic

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 64.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-14.6%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.1%1-19.6%1-24.5%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.9%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.2%3-16.9%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-15.7%4+-22.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.4% 63.7% 1.57 -8.3%

Draw 20.7% 23.8% 4.20 -7.8%

Away win 20.8% 23.1% 4.33 -6.0%

Over 2.5 59.7% 60.6% 1.65 -1.5%

Over 3.5 36.4% 40.2% 2.49 -9.4%

BTTS 53.5% 60.6% 1.65 -11.7%

Home O1.5 60.2% 64.9% 1.54 -7.3%

Away O1.5 26.1% 29.9% 3.34 -7.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -31.6%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.5%

H 58% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.5%

#2 1–1 9.6%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 3–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Modbury Jets2.1

Adelaide Olympic0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MODBURY JETS · PPG 2.27

ADELAIDE OLYMPIC · PPG 1.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.12 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Modbury Jets (H) 58.4%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -8.3%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -7.8%

Adelaide Olympic (A) 20.8%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -6.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Modbury Jets face Adelaide Olympic in Australia - South Australia State League 1 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Modbury Jets a 58% chance, the draw 21% and Adelaide Olympic 21%, so Modbury Jets are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Modbury Jets and 0.9 for Adelaide Olympic (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Modbury Jets are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 1.64 for Adelaide Olympic.

Modbury Jets vs Adelaide Olympic Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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