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Cumberland United vs Modbury Jets Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 07:30

Cumberland United

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Modbury Jets

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 68.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-18.2%0-26.1%0-33.0%0-4+1.6%1 1-07.8%1-111.6%1-28.6%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.5%2-18.2%2-26.1%2-33.0%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.6%3-13.8%3-22.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% 40.0% 2.50 -7.8%

Draw 25.5% 27.0% 3.70 -3.4%

Away win 37.6% 43.5% 2.30 -13.5%

Over 2.5 59.5% 62.5% 1.60 -4.8%

Over 3.5 36.5% 42.6% 2.35 -14.2%

BTTS 61.6% 68.0% 1.47 -9.4%

Home O1.5 45.1% 48.3% 2.07 -6.6%

Away O1.5 46.1% 52.1% 1.92 -11.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.6%

A 38% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 0–0 5.5%

#5 0–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cumberland United1.4

Modbury Jets1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CUMBERLAND UNITED · PPG 1.20

MODBURY JETS · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.07 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cumberland United (H) 36.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -7.8%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -3.4%

Modbury Jets (A) 37.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -13.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cumberland United face Modbury Jets in Australia - South Australia State League 1 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cumberland United a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Modbury Jets 38%, so Modbury Jets are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Cumberland United and 1.5 for Modbury Jets (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cumberland United are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.60 for Modbury Jets.

Cumberland United vs Modbury Jets Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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