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Adelaide Blue Eagles vs Adelaide Raiders Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Semi-finals ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 05:30

Adelaide Blue Eagles

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWL

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Adelaide Raiders

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-16.1%0-25.1%0-32.8%0-4+1.7%1 1-06.1%1-110.1%1-28.3%1-34.6%1-4+2.7%2 2-05.0%2-18.3%2-26.8%2-33.8%2-4+2.2%3 3-02.7%3-14.5%3-23.7%3-32.1%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.7%4+-22.2%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.9% 42.0% 2.38 -7.4%

Draw 23.8% 30.3% 3.30 -12.9%

Away win 37.3% 40.0% 2.50 -6.8%

Over 2.5 62.1% 63.7% 1.57 -2.5%

Over 3.5 39.3% 42.0% 2.38 -6.5%

BTTS 62.5% 69.4% 1.44 -10.0%

Home O1.5 48.9% 51.5% 1.94 -5.1%

Away O1.5 47.9% 48.8% 2.05 -1.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -31.6%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob62.5%

H 39% / xG 1.6-1.7 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 8.3%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide Blue Eagles1.6

Adelaide Raiders1.7

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE BLUE EAGLES · PPG 2.00

ADELAIDE RAIDERS · PPG 1.82

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide Blue Eagles (H) 38.9%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -7.4%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.9%

Adelaide Raiders (A) 37.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -6.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide Blue Eagles face Adelaide Raiders in Australia - South Australia State League 1 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide Blue Eagles a 39% chance, the draw 24% and Adelaide Raiders 37%, so Adelaide Blue Eagles are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Adelaide Blue Eagles and 1.7 for Adelaide Raiders (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide Blue Eagles are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.82 for Adelaide Raiders. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 0-3.

Adelaide Blue Eagles vs Adelaide Raiders Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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