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Adelaide Olympic vs Modbury Jets Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Semi-finals ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 10:30

Adelaide Olympic

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Modbury Jets

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-18.0%0-24.5%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.8%1-112.2%1-26.8%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.2%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.1%3-14.7%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 33.3% 3.00 +36.5%

Draw 24.7% 30.3% 3.30 -11.1%

Away win 29.8% 50.0% 2.00 -24.2%

Over 2.5 53.5% 61.7% 1.62 -13.3%

Over 3.5 31.5% 40.7% 2.46 -22.5%

BTTS 54.3% 65.4% 1.53 -16.9%

Home O1.5 40.1% 43.1% 2.32 -7.0%

Away O1.5 33.0% 54.9% 1.82 -39.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -31.6%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.3%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–0 10.8%

#4 2–0 8.2%

#5 1–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide Olympic1.5

Modbury Jets1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE OLYMPIC · PPG 2.33

MODBURY JETS · PPG 1.73

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide Olympic (H) 45.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +36.5%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.1%

Modbury Jets (A) 29.8%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -24.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide Olympic face Modbury Jets in Australia - South Australia State League 1 on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide Olympic a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Modbury Jets 30%, so Adelaide Olympic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Adelaide Olympic and 1.1 for Modbury Jets (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide Olympic are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.73 for Modbury Jets. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.3%. This match finished 0-4.

Adelaide Olympic vs Modbury Jets Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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