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Adelaide Olympic vs Adelaide Victory Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Quarter-finals ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 10:00

Adelaide Olympic

PPG 2.27 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Adelaide Victory

PPG 1.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+20.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-13.9%0-22.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.3%1-18.7%1-24.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.4%2-19.8%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.0%3-17.3%3-23.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-17.0%4+-23.7%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.5% 46.5% 2.15 +19.3%

Draw 22.1% 30.8% 3.25 -16.9%

Away win 22.5% 35.7% 2.80 -22.2%

Over 2.5 62.8% 65.4% 1.53 -3.9%

Over 3.5 39.4% 43.3% 2.31 -9.0%

BTTS 60.3% 69.4% 1.44 -13.2%

Home O1.5 65.1% 54.1% 1.85 +20.4%

Away O1.5 32.8% 49.5% 2.02 -33.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -31.6%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.3%

H 56% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 1–2 4.6%

#5 3–1✓ 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide Olympic2.2

Adelaide Victory1.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.8% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE OLYMPIC · PPG 2.27

ADELAIDE VICTORY · PPG 1.55

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.20 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide Olympic (H) 55.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +19.3%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -16.9%

Adelaide Victory (A) 22.5%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -22.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide Olympic face Adelaide Victory in Australia - South Australia State League 1 on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide Olympic a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Adelaide Victory 23%, so Adelaide Olympic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Adelaide Olympic and 1.0 for Adelaide Victory (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide Olympic are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 1.55 for Adelaide Victory. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +28.0%. This match finished 3-1.

Adelaide Olympic vs Adelaide Victory Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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