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Adelaide Olympic vs Adelaide Raiders Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 07:30

Adelaide Olympic

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Adelaide Raiders

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-14.8%0-23.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.9%1-19.5%1-26.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.8%2-19.4%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.5%3-16.2%3-24.3%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-14.8%4+-23.3%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 42.0% 2.38 +21.1%

Draw 22.6% 27.0% 3.70 -9.8%

Away win 26.5% 42.0% 2.38 -22.2%

Over 2.5 63.1% 65.4% 1.53 -3.5%

Over 3.5 40.1% 46.7% 2.14 -14.2%

BTTS 61.6% 72.5% 1.38 -15.0%

Home O1.5 54.6% 53.5% 1.87 +2.1%

Away O1.5 42.6% 54.3% 1.84 -21.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.6%

H 51% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 6.8%

#4 1–2 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide Olympic2.0

Adelaide Raiders1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE OLYMPIC · PPG 2.50

ADELAIDE RAIDERS · PPG 1.70

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide Olympic (H) 50.9%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +21.1%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -9.8%

Adelaide Raiders (A) 26.5%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -22.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide Olympic face Adelaide Raiders in Australia - South Australia State League 1 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide Olympic a 51% chance, the draw 23% and Adelaide Raiders 27%, so Adelaide Olympic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Adelaide Olympic and 1.4 for Adelaide Raiders (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide Olympic are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.70 for Adelaide Raiders. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +28.1%.

Adelaide Olympic vs Adelaide Raiders Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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