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Suwon FMC W vs Incheon Red Angels W Prediction— South-Korea - WK-League

Matchday 17 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 10:00

Suwon FMC W

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Incheon Red Angels W

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 61% chance

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-15.8%0-22.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.2%1-110.7%1-25.1%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.4%2-19.9%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.4%3-16.1%3-22.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-14.3%4+-22.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.5% 69.0% 1.45 -19.5%

Draw 24.1% 25.3% 3.95 -2.9%

Away win 20.4% 17.4% 5.75 +10.4%

Over 2.5 53.9% 57.8% 1.73 -6.8%

Over 3.5 32.8% 34.7% 2.88 -5.5%

BTTS 52.3% 54.1% 1.85 -3.2%

Home O1.5 55.7% 62.5% 1.60 -10.9%

Away O1.5 28.5% 22.5% 4.45 +16.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 18.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 56% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–0 10.4%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.2%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Suwon FMC W1.9

Incheon Red Angels W1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SUWON FMC W · PPG 1.67

INCHEON RED ANGELS W · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

61%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.90 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Suwon FMC W (H) 55.5%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -19.5%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -2.9%

Incheon Red Angels W (A) 20.4%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Suwon FMC W face Incheon Red Angels W in South-Korea - WK-League on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Suwon FMC W a 56% chance, the draw 24% and Incheon Red Angels W 20%, so Suwon FMC W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Suwon FMC W and 1.0 for Incheon Red Angels W (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Suwon FMC W are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.29 for Incheon Red Angels W. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +41.6%. This match finished 4-0.

Suwon FMC W vs Incheon Red Angels W Prediction— South-Korea - WK-League

Match Preview & Prediction

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