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Suwon FMC W vs Incheon Red Angels W Prediction— South-Korea - WK-League

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 10:00

Suwon FMC W

PPG 2.09 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Incheon Red Angels W

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 71% chance

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-13.4%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.9%1-17.9%1-22.9%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.8%2-19.3%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.0%3-17.2%3-22.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.1%4+-17.4%4+-22.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.4% 82.0% 1.22 -20.2%

Draw 19.3% 20.8% 4.80 -4.4%

Away win 15.3% 10.0% 10.00 +31.8%

Over 2.5 59.6% 63.7% 1.57 -6.4%

Over 3.5 36.4% 41.2% 2.43 -11.6%

BTTS 52.9% 50.0% 2.00 +5.8%

Home O1.5 66.3% 72.5% 1.38 -8.5%

Away O1.5 18.8% 16.0% 6.25 +10.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 18.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.9%

H 65% / xG 2.3-0.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 12.8%

#2 1–1 7.9%

#3 3–0 10.0%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Suwon FMC W2.3

Incheon Red Angels W0.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SUWON FMC W · PPG 2.09

INCHEON RED ANGELS W · PPG 0.91

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

71%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.62 for Home, form 2.09 vs 0.91 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Suwon FMC W (H) 65.4%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -20.2%

Draw 19.3%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -4.4%

Incheon Red Angels W (A) 15.3%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +31.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Suwon FMC W face Incheon Red Angels W in South-Korea - WK-League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Suwon FMC W a 65% chance, the draw 19% and Incheon Red Angels W 15%, so Suwon FMC W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Suwon FMC W and 0.7 for Incheon Red Angels W (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Suwon FMC W are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 0.91 for Incheon Red Angels W. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +23.2%. This match finished 2-0.

Suwon FMC W vs Incheon Red Angels W Prediction— South-Korea - WK-League

Match Preview & Prediction

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