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Boeun Sangmu W vs Gumi Sportstoto W Prediction— South-Korea - WK-League

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 10:00

Boeun Sangmu W

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Gumi Sportstoto W

PPG 1.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-111.0%0-27.1%0-33.0%0-4+1.3%1 1-010.0%1-112.9%1-28.3%1-33.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.9%2-17.6%2-24.9%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.3%3-13.0%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.6% 40.0% 2.50 -11.0%

Draw 26.8% 33.3% 3.00 -11.8%

Away win 37.6% 40.0% 2.50 -6.0%

Over 2.5 50.5% 47.6% 2.10 +6.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 27.9% 3.58 +1.7%

BTTS 52.7% 55.6% 1.80 -5.1%

Home O1.5 31.8% 38.9% 2.57 -18.3%

Away O1.5 36.6% 38.9% 2.57 -5.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 18.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 18%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.7%

A 38% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–1✓ 11.0%

#3 1–0 10.0%

#4 0–0 8.5%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Boeun Sangmu W1.2

Gumi Sportstoto W1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BOEUN SANGMU W · PPG 1.00

GUMI SPORTSTOTO W · PPG 1.55

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.11, combined xG 2.46 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Boeun Sangmu W (H) 35.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -11.0%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.8%

Gumi Sportstoto W (A) 37.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -6.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Boeun Sangmu W face Gumi Sportstoto W in South-Korea - WK-League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Boeun Sangmu W a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Gumi Sportstoto W 38%, so Gumi Sportstoto W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Boeun Sangmu W and 1.3 for Gumi Sportstoto W (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Boeun Sangmu W are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.55 for Gumi Sportstoto W. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +7.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Boeun Sangmu W vs Gumi Sportstoto W Prediction— South-Korea - WK-League

Match Preview & Prediction

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