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Incheon Red Angels W vs Boeun Sangmu W Prediction— South-Korea - WK-League

Matchday 21 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 10:00

Incheon Red Angels W

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Boeun Sangmu W

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 49.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.8%0-114.2%0-28.5%0-33.4%0-4+1.3%1 1-011.0%1-113.3%1-28.0%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-05.1%2-16.2%2-23.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.6%3-11.9%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.8% 48.8% 2.05 -34.8%

Draw 27.8% 30.8% 3.25 -5.8%

Away win 40.5% 32.3% 3.10 +25.6%

Over 2.5 44.8% 54.1% 1.85 -17.1%

Over 3.5 26.4% 31.3% 3.20 -9.3%

BTTS 49.6% 55.6% 1.80 -10.7%

Home O1.5 30.6% 49.8% 2.01 -38.5%

Away O1.5 37.1% 33.6% 2.98 +10.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 18.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.6%

A 40% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–1 14.2%

#3 0–0 11.8%

#4 1–0 11.0%

#5 0–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Incheon Red Angels W0.9

Boeun Sangmu W1.2

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

INCHEON RED ANGELS W · PPG 1.20

BOEUN SANGMU W · PPG 1.67

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.27, combined xG 2.14 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Incheon Red Angels W (H) 31.8%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -34.8%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -5.8%

Boeun Sangmu W (A) 40.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +25.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Incheon Red Angels W face Boeun Sangmu W in South-Korea - WK-League on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Incheon Red Angels W a 32% chance, the draw 28% and Boeun Sangmu W 41%, so Boeun Sangmu W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Incheon Red Angels W and 1.2 for Boeun Sangmu W (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Incheon Red Angels W are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.67 for Boeun Sangmu W. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +16.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Incheon Red Angels W vs Boeun Sangmu W Prediction— South-Korea - WK-League

Match Preview & Prediction

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