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Incheon Red Angels W vs Gyeongju W Prediction— South-Korea - WK-League

Matchday 22 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 10:00

Incheon Red Angels W

PPG 1.09 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Gyeongju W

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-112.7%0-210.8%0-36.2%0-4+3.9%1 1-06.6%1-111.3%1-29.7%1-35.5%1-4+3.4%2 2-03.0%2-15.1%2-24.3%2-32.5%2-4+1.5%3 3-00.9%3-11.5%3-21.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.1% 35.7% 2.80 -19.5%

Draw 24.4% 32.3% 3.10 -14.6%

Away win 51.5% 45.5% 2.20 +13.3%

Over 2.5 50.5% 50.0% 2.00 +1.0%

Over 3.5 30.0% 31.8% 3.14 -5.8%

BTTS 52.7% 59.9% 1.67 -12.0%

Home O1.5 30.9% 38.9% 2.57 -20.6%

Away O1.5 47.9% 46.5% 2.15 +3.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 18.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob52.7%

A 52% / xG 0.9-1.7 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.3%

#2 0–1 12.7%

#3 0–2 10.8%

#4 1–2 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Incheon Red Angels W0.9

Gyeongju W1.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

INCHEON RED ANGELS W · PPG 1.09

GYEONGJU W · PPG 1.80

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.81 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Incheon Red Angels W (H) 24.1%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -19.5%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.6%

Gyeongju W (A) 51.5%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +13.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Incheon Red Angels W face Gyeongju W in South-Korea - WK-League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Incheon Red Angels W a 24% chance, the draw 24% and Gyeongju W 52%, so Gyeongju W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Incheon Red Angels W and 1.7 for Gyeongju W (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Incheon Red Angels W are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 1.80 for Gyeongju W. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +21.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Incheon Red Angels W vs Gyeongju W Prediction— South-Korea - WK-League

Match Preview & Prediction

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