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Hwacheon KSPO W vs Boeun Sangmu W Prediction— South-Korea - WK-League

Matchday 17 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 10:00

Hwacheon KSPO W

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDWD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Boeun Sangmu W

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.6%0-111.4%0-24.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.6%1-112.9%1-24.7%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.9%2-17.2%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.7%3-12.7%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% 69.4% 1.44 -32.3%

Draw 29.2% 26.3% 3.80 +6.6%

Away win 23.8% 16.1% 6.20 +28.5%

Over 2.5 43.6% 55.6% 1.80 -21.5%

Over 3.5 23.0% 32.5% 3.08 -17.5%

BTTS 48.5% 51.3% 1.95 -5.4%

Home O1.5 35.0% 62.1% 1.61 -43.6%

Away O1.5 20.1% 19.8% 5.05 +0.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 18.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 47% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.6%

#2 1–0 17.6%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 2–0✓ 9.9%

#5 0–1 11.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hwacheon KSPO W1.1

Boeun Sangmu W0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HWACHEON KSPO W · PPG 2.00

BOEUN SANGMU W · PPG 2.50

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

49%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.40, combined xG 1.86 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hwacheon KSPO W (H) 47.0%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -32.3%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +6.6%

Boeun Sangmu W (A) 23.8%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +28.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hwacheon KSPO W face Boeun Sangmu W in South-Korea - WK-League on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hwacheon KSPO W a 47% chance, the draw 29% and Boeun Sangmu W 24%, so Hwacheon KSPO W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Hwacheon KSPO W and 0.7 for Boeun Sangmu W (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hwacheon KSPO W are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.50 for Boeun Sangmu W. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +36.7%. This match finished 2-0.

Hwacheon KSPO W vs Boeun Sangmu W Prediction— South-Korea - WK-League

Match Preview & Prediction

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