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Adelaide Olympic vs South Adelaide Panthers Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Regular Season - 19 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 10:00

Adelaide Olympic

PPG 2.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

South Adelaide Panthers

PPG 0.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.5% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-10.9%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-04.3%1-13.2%1-21.2%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.0%2-16.0%2-22.2%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.8%3-17.4%3-22.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-023.9%4+-117.9%4+-26.7%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.3% 78.1% 1.28 -6.2%

Draw 17.3% 19.0% 5.25 -5.5%

Away win 9.5% 15.4% 6.50 -22.9%

Over 2.5 72.6% 73.5% 1.36 -1.3%

Over 3.5 52.0% 54.9% 1.82 -5.4%

BTTS 55.4% 63.3% 1.58 -12.5%

Home O1.5 77.5% 82.0% 1.22 -5.5%

Away O1.5 20.1% 28.6% 3.50 -17.8%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob55.4%

H 73% / xG 3.7-0.8 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.8%

#2 4–0 9.1%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 3–1 7.4%

#5 4–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide Olympic3.7

South Adelaide Panthers0.8

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE OLYMPIC · PPG 2.44

SOUTH ADELAIDE PANTHERS · PPG 0.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.95 for Home, form 2.44 vs 0.11 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide Olympic (H) 73.3%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -6.2%

Draw 17.3%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -5.5%

South Adelaide Panthers (A) 9.5%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -22.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide Olympic face South Adelaide Panthers in Australia - South Australia State League 1 on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide Olympic a 73% chance, the draw 17% and South Adelaide Panthers 10%, so Adelaide Olympic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.7 for Adelaide Olympic and 0.8 for South Adelaide Panthers (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide Olympic are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 0.11 for South Adelaide Panthers.

Adelaide Olympic vs South Adelaide Panthers Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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