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Adelaide Olympic vs South Adelaide Panthers Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Matchday 19 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 10:00

Adelaide Olympic

PPG 2.44 · HOME

LAST 5

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5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

South Adelaide Panthers

PPG 0.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 78% chance

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 77.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-11.0%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-04.8%1-13.5%1-21.3%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.5%2-16.3%2-22.3%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.2%3-17.5%3-22.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-023.1%4+-117.0%4+-26.3%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.3% 75.2% 1.33 -2.5%

Draw 17.3% 20.8% 4.80 -10.2%

Away win 9.5% 16.7% 6.00 -25.8%

Over 2.5 72.6% 73.5% 1.36 -1.3%

Over 3.5 52.0% 54.1% 1.85 -3.8%

BTTS 55.4% 64.5% 1.55 -14.1%

Home O1.5 77.3% 77.5% 1.29 -0.3%

Away O1.5 20.1% 32.3% 3.10 -22.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -17.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)3.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob55.4%

H 73% / xG 3.6-0.7 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.2%

#2 4–0 9.1%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 3–1 7.5%

#5 4–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide Olympic3.6

South Adelaide Panthers0.7

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE OLYMPIC · PPG 2.44

SOUTH ADELAIDE PANTHERS · PPG 0.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

78%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.85 for Home, form 2.44 vs 0.11 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide Olympic (H) 73.3%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -2.5%

Draw 17.3%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -10.2%

South Adelaide Panthers (A) 9.5%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -25.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide Olympic face South Adelaide Panthers in Australia - South Australia State League 1 on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide Olympic a 73% chance, the draw 17% and South Adelaide Panthers 10%, so Adelaide Olympic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.6 for Adelaide Olympic and 0.7 for South Adelaide Panthers (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide Olympic are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 0.11 for South Adelaide Panthers. This match finished 5-1.

Adelaide Olympic vs South Adelaide Panthers Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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