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Norderstedt vs Schoningen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

North - 30 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:00

Norderstedt

PPG 0.79 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Schoningen

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 84.2% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5% — a clear edge.

+16.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-12.8%0-24.0%0-33.9%0-4+5.7%1 1-01.7%1-14.9%1-27.1%1-36.8%1-4+10.0%2 2-01.5%2-14.3%2-26.2%2-35.9%2-4+8.8%3 3-00.9%3-12.5%3-23.6%3-33.5%3-4+5.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.6%4+-22.3%4+-32.2%4+-4+3.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.7% 46.5% 2.15 -53.3%

Draw 16.8% 26.0% 3.85 -35.3%

Away win 61.5% 37.7% 2.65 +63.0%

Over 2.5 84.2% 72.5% 1.38 +16.2%

Over 3.5 68.1% 51.3% 1.95 +32.8%

BTTS 78.0% 74.1% 1.35 +5.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob78.0%

A 62% / xG 1.7-2.9 / O2.5 84% / BTTS 78%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.1%

#2 1–3 6.8%

#3 2–2 6.2%

#4 2–3 5.9%

#5 1–4 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Norderstedt1.7

Schoningen2.9

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 84.2% · O3.5 PROB 68.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NORDERSTEDT · PPG 0.79

SCHONINGEN · PPG 1.23

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.79) vs Away AVERAGE (1.23)

Win probability 1X2

Norderstedt (H) 21.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -53.3%

Draw 16.8%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -35.3%

Schoningen (A) 61.5%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +63.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Norderstedt face Schoningen in Germany - Regionalliga - Nord on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Norderstedt a 22% chance, the draw 17% and Schoningen 62%, so Schoningen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Norderstedt and 2.9 for Schoningen (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 84% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 78% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Norderstedt are averaging 0.79 points per game versus 1.23 for Schoningen. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +63.0%. This match finished 3-1.

Norderstedt vs Schoningen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

Match Preview & Prediction

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