Today / Australia - NPL New South Wales / Northern Tigers vs St. George Saints

Northern Tigers vs St. George Saints Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Final ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 08:30

Northern Tigers

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

St. George Saints

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 59% chance

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-15.8%0-22.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.7%1-110.7%1-25.4%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.8%2-19.9%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.0%3-16.1%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-14.2%4+-22.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.9% 44.4% 2.25 +21.3%

Draw 23.5% 29.4% 3.40 -12.1%

Away win 22.6% 38.2% 2.62 -24.5%

Over 2.5 59.6% 58.8% 1.70 +1.3%

Over 3.5 36.4% 38.2% 2.62 -4.6%

BTTS 55.2% 63.7% 1.57 -13.3%

Home O1.5 55.3% 52.4% 1.91 +5.6%

Away O1.5 30.8% 42.0% 2.38 -26.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 160 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.2%

H 54% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Northern Tigers1.8

St. George Saints1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTHERN TIGERS · PPG 1.50

ST. GEORGE SAINTS · PPG 0.93

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

59%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.83 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Northern Tigers (H) 53.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +21.3%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -12.1%

St. George Saints (A) 22.6%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -24.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Northern Tigers face St. George Saints in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Northern Tigers a 54% chance, the draw 24% and St. George Saints 23%, so Northern Tigers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Northern Tigers and 1.0 for St. George Saints (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Northern Tigers are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.93 for St. George Saints. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +21.5%.

Northern Tigers vs St. George Saints Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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