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APIA Leichhardt Tigers vs NWS Spirit Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Semi-finals ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 06:00

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

PPG 2.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

NWS Spirit

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 62% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-14.3%0-22.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.8%1-19.3%1-24.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.7%3-17.1%3-23.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-16.2%4+-23.3%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.3% 66.7% 1.50 -17.1%

Draw 21.8% 25.0% 4.00 -7.7%

Away win 22.9% 20.0% 5.00 +8.7%

Over 2.5 61.1% 61.7% 1.62 -1.0%

Over 3.5 38.4% 40.0% 2.50 -4.0%

BTTS 58.2% 59.9% 1.67 -2.8%

Home O1.5 60.3% 66.7% 1.50 -9.6%

Away O1.5 32.5% 28.6% 3.50 +13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 160 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob58.2%

H 55% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 1–2 4.9%

#5 1–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

APIA Leichhardt Tigers2.1

NWS Spirit1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.4%

Form & verdict PPG

APIA LEICHHARDT TIGERS · PPG 2.67

NWS SPIRIT · PPG 1.06

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

62%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.09 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

APIA Leichhardt Tigers (H) 55.3%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -17.1%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.7%

NWS Spirit (A) 22.9%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

APIA Leichhardt Tigers face NWS Spirit in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives APIA Leichhardt Tigers a 55% chance, the draw 22% and NWS Spirit 23%, so APIA Leichhardt Tigers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for APIA Leichhardt Tigers and 1.0 for NWS Spirit (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, APIA Leichhardt Tigers are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 1.06 for NWS Spirit. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +13.8%.

APIA Leichhardt Tigers vs NWS Spirit Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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