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Sydney United vs Manly United Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Semi-finals ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 04:00

Sydney United

PPG 2.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Manly United

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home 63% chance

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-17.3%0-22.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.4%1-111.2%1-23.6%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.4%2-18.6%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.8%3-14.4%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-12.4%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 66.7% 1.50 -19.6%

Draw 24.5% 27.0% 3.70 -5.6%

Away win 21.9% 18.2% 5.50 +12.3%

Over 2.5 49.4% 54.1% 1.85 -8.6%

Over 3.5 28.0% 30.8% 3.25 -5.4%

BTTS 48.0% 54.1% 1.85 -11.2%

Home O1.5 42.4% 59.9% 1.67 -29.2%

Away O1.5 17.3% 25.0% 4.00 -18.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 160 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.0%

H 54% / xG 1.5-0.6 / U2.5 49% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.4%

#2 2–0 13.4%

#3 0–0 11.3%

#4 1–1 11.2%

#5 0–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sydney United1.5

Manly United0.6

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SYDNEY UNITED · PPG 2.33

MANLY UNITED · PPG 1.06

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

63%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.90 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sydney United (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -19.6%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -5.6%

Manly United (A) 21.9%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sydney United face Manly United in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sydney United a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Manly United 22%, so Sydney United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sydney United and 0.6 for Manly United (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sydney United are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.06 for Manly United.

Sydney United vs Manly United Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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