Today / Denmark - Superliga / Silkeborg vs Fredericia

Silkeborg vs Fredericia Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Relegation Group · Matchday 27 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:00

Silkeborg

PPG 1.15 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Fredericia

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 68% chance

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.3% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a clear edge.

+12.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-14.4%0-24.4%0-32.9%0-4+2.3%1 1-04.0%1-18.0%1-28.0%1-35.3%1-4+4.2%2 2-03.7%2-17.3%2-27.3%2-34.8%2-4+3.8%3 3-02.2%3-14.4%3-24.4%3-32.9%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-13.0%4+-23.0%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 48.8% 2.05 -26.2%

Draw 21.2% 26.7% 3.75 -20.5%

Away win 42.8% 31.3% 3.20 +37.0%

Over 2.5 73.3% 65.4% 1.53 +12.2%

Over 3.5 52.9% 43.5% 2.30 +21.7%

BTTS 72.4% 69.4% 1.44 +4.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob72.4%

A 43% / xG 1.8-2.0 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 72%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.0%

#2 1–2 8.0%

#3 2–1 7.3%

#4 2–2✓ 7.3%

#5 1–3 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Silkeborg1.8

Fredericia2.0

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.3% · O3.5 PROB 52.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SILKEBORG · PPG 1.15

FREDERICIA · PPG 1.23

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

68%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.15), Away AVERAGE (1.23)

Win probability 1X2

Silkeborg (H) 36.0%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -26.2%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -20.5%

Fredericia (A) 42.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +37.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Silkeborg face Fredericia in Denmark - Superliga on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Silkeborg a 36% chance, the draw 21% and Fredericia 43%, so Fredericia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Silkeborg and 2.0 for Fredericia (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Silkeborg are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 1.23 for Fredericia. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +37.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Silkeborg vs Fredericia Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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