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Aucas vs Barcelona SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 29 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 00:00

Aucas

PPG 1.79 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWD

UPCOMING

Barcelona SC

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.2%0-111.0%0-24.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.8%1-112.9%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.9%2-17.6%2-22.9%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.9%3-13.0%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.1%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% 50.0% 2.00 -11.2%

Draw 29.1% 33.3% 3.00 -7.6%

Away win 26.6% 29.4% 3.40 -5.7%

Over 2.5 41.9% 45.5% 2.20 -7.8%

Over 3.5 20.9% 25.0% 4.00 -9.8%

BTTS 48.0% 54.1% 1.85 -11.2%

Home O1.5 33.0% 42.0% 2.38 -21.5%

Away O1.5 21.5% 29.4% 3.40 -16.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 129 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 7.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.0%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.8%

#2 0–0 14.2%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 0–1 11.0%

#5 2–0 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aucas1.2

Barcelona SC0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AUCAS · PPG 1.79

BARCELONA SC · PPG 0.86

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.41, combined xG 1.95 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Aucas (H) 44.4%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -11.2%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.6%

Barcelona SC (A) 26.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aucas face Barcelona SC in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aucas a 44% chance, the draw 29% and Barcelona SC 27%, so Aucas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Aucas and 0.8 for Barcelona SC (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aucas are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 0.86 for Barcelona SC.

Aucas vs Barcelona SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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