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Deportivo Cuenca vs Libertad Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 29 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 00:00

Deportivo Cuenca

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLW

UPCOMING

Libertad

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-110.6%0-25.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.3%1-113.2%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.3%2-18.2%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.4%3-13.4%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.2% 58.8% 1.70 -30.0%

Draw 28.5% 30.8% 3.25 -4.4%

Away win 30.2% 22.7% 4.40 +32.9%

Over 2.5 44.1% 48.1% 2.08 -8.3%

Over 3.5 25.3% 26.7% 3.75 -3.1%

BTTS 49.9% 54.1% 1.85 -7.7%

Home O1.5 35.8% 52.4% 1.91 -31.6%

Away O1.5 29.4% 25.0% 4.00 +10.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 129 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 7.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.9%

H 41% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 1–0 13.3%

#3 0–0 10.7%

#4 0–1 10.6%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Cuenca1.2

Libertad1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.1% · O3.5 PROB 25.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO CUENCA · PPG 1.36

LIBERTAD · PPG 0.79

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

50%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.26, combined xG 2.24 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Cuenca (H) 41.2%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -30.0%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -4.4%

Libertad (A) 30.2%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +32.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Cuenca face Libertad in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Cuenca a 41% chance, the draw 28% and Libertad 30%, so Deportivo Cuenca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Deportivo Cuenca and 1.0 for Libertad (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Cuenca are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 0.79 for Libertad. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +38.3%.

Deportivo Cuenca vs Libertad Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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