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Belgrano Córdoba Res. vs Ferro 2 Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura - 2 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 18:00

Belgrano Córdoba Res.

PPG 1.89 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Ferro 2

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-15.8%0-23.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.3%1-110.7%1-25.5%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.9%3-16.1%3-23.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-14.3%4+-22.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 61.7% 1.62 -13.2%

Draw 24.7% 29.4% 3.40 -9.6%

Away win 21.8% 21.1% 4.75 +2.1%

Over 2.5 53.9% 51.3% 1.95 +5.1%

Over 3.5 32.8% 32.8% 3.05 +0.0%

BTTS 52.3% 52.4% 1.91 -0.1%

Home O1.5 55.7% 57.5% 1.74 -3.1%

Away O1.5 35.0% 24.7% 4.05 +41.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 17%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 54% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Belgrano Córdoba Res.1.9

Ferro 21.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BELGRANO CÓRDOBA RES. · PPG 1.89

FERRO 2 · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Belgrano Córdoba Res. (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -13.2%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.6%

Ferro 2 (A) 21.8%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +2.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Belgrano Córdoba Res. face Ferro 2 in Argentina - Reserve League on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Belgrano Córdoba Res. a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Ferro 2 22%, so Belgrano Córdoba Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Belgrano Córdoba Res. and 1.0 for Ferro 2 (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Belgrano Córdoba Res. are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 0.78 for Ferro 2. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +41.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Belgrano Córdoba Res. vs Ferro 2 Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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