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Orense SC vs Aucas Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 21 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 21:30

Orense SC

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Aucas

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-111.2%0-26.2%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.1%1-113.3%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.1%2-17.9%2-24.3%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.8%3-13.1%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.4% 39.7% 2.52 -5.8%

Draw 27.8% 30.3% 3.30 -5.0%

Away win 34.8% 37.0% 2.70 -6.0%

Over 2.5 46.8% 47.6% 2.10 -1.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.0% 3.85 +6.3%

BTTS 50.7% 55.6% 1.80 -8.7%

Home O1.5 35.6% 39.2% 2.55 -9.2%

Away O1.5 36.3% 37.7% 2.65 -3.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob50.7%

H 37% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.2%

#3 1–0 12.1%

#4 0–1 11.2%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orense SC1.2

Aucas1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ORENSE SC · PPG 1.20

AUCAS · PPG 1.60

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.20) vs Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Orense SC (H) 37.4%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV -5.8%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.0%

Aucas (A) 34.8%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -6.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orense SC face Aucas in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orense SC a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Aucas 35%, so Orense SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Orense SC and 1.1 for Aucas (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orense SC are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.60 for Aucas. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.3%.

Orense SC vs Aucas Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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