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Orense SC vs Aucas Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 21 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 21:30

Orense SC

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Aucas

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-110.8%0-25.9%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.0%1-113.2%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.3%2-18.1%2-24.4%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.0%3-13.3%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.7% 42.7% 2.34 -11.8%

Draw 27.2% 31.3% 3.20 -7.8%

Away win 35.1% 32.8% 3.05 +7.0%

Over 2.5 49.0% 45.5% 2.20 +7.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 23.8% 4.20 +12.3%

BTTS 52.3% 54.1% 1.85 -3.2%

Home O1.5 36.8% 40.8% 2.45 -9.8%

Away O1.5 36.4% 33.3% 3.00 +9.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 128 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

H 38% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 49% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 9.8%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 2–1✓ 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orense SC1.2

Aucas1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ORENSE SC · PPG 1.20

AUCAS · PPG 1.60

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

54%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.12, combined xG 2.32 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Orense SC (H) 37.7%

ODDS 2.34 · IMPLIED 42.7% EV -11.8%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.8%

Aucas (A) 35.1%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orense SC face Aucas in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orense SC a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Aucas 35%, so Orense SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Orense SC and 1.1 for Aucas (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orense SC are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.60 for Aucas. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Orense SC vs Aucas Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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