Today / Ecuador - Liga Pro / Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC

Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 21 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 21:30

Leones del Norte

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Guayaquil City FC

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWL

// Model verdict

Home 55% chance

Model probability 52.2% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-18.6%0-23.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.4%1-112.0%1-24.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.1%2-18.3%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.6%3-13.9%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-11.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.2% 55.6% 1.80 -6.0%

Draw 27.2% 30.3% 3.30 -6.1%

Away win 20.6% 21.5% 4.65 -2.5%

Over 2.5 43.6% 40.8% 2.45 +6.8%

Over 3.5 23.0% 21.1% 4.75 +5.5%

BTTS 48.5% 46.5% 2.15 +4.3%

Home O1.5 41.8% 46.5% 2.15 -10.1%

Away O1.5 20.1% 22.2% 4.50 -5.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 128 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.4%

#2 0–0 12.5%

#3 1–1✓ 12.0%

#4 2–0 12.1%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leones del Norte1.4

Guayaquil City FC0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LEONES DEL NORTE · PPG 1.80

GUAYAQUIL CITY FC · PPG 1.10

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Leones del Norte (H) 52.2%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -6.0%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.1%

Guayaquil City FC (A) 20.6%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV -2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leones del Norte face Guayaquil City FC in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leones del Norte a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Guayaquil City FC 21%, so Leones del Norte are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Leones del Norte and 0.7 for Guayaquil City FC (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leones del Norte are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.10 for Guayaquil City FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +11.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ecuador - Liga Pro Predictions