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Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 21 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 21:30

Leones del Norte

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Guayaquil City FC

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-19.0%0-23.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.4%1-112.1%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.8%2-18.2%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.3%3-13.7%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.4% 54.3% 1.84 -7.3%

Draw 27.6% 31.7% 3.15 -7.8%

Away win 22.0% 21.1% 4.75 +2.7%

Over 2.5 43.4% 40.8% 2.45 +6.3%

Over 3.5 22.9% 21.1% 4.75 +5.3%

BTTS 48.4% 47.6% 2.10 +1.6%

Home O1.5 39.2% 45.5% 2.20 -13.8%

Away O1.5 20.7% 22.2% 4.50 -4.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.4%

#2 0–0 12.8%

#3 1–1 12.1%

#4 2–0 11.8%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leones del Norte1.4

Guayaquil City FC0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.4% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LEONES DEL NORTE · PPG 1.80

GUAYAQUIL CITY FC · PPG 1.10

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.10)

Win probability 1X2

Leones del Norte (H) 50.4%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -7.3%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -7.8%

Guayaquil City FC (A) 22.0%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +2.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leones del Norte face Guayaquil City FC in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leones del Norte a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Guayaquil City FC 22%, so Leones del Norte are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Leones del Norte and 0.7 for Guayaquil City FC (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leones del Norte are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.10 for Guayaquil City FC. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.3%.

Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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