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BKMA vs Gandzasar Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Regular Season - 22 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:00

BKMA

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Gandzasar

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 58.8% vs bookmaker-implied 37.7% — a clear edge.

+55.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-17.2%0-22.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.7%1-111.2%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.1%2-18.8%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.8%3-14.6%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-12.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.8% 37.7% 2.65 +55.8%

Draw 25.3% 31.3% 3.20 -19.0%

Away win 15.9% 41.7% 2.40 -61.8%

Over 2.5 38.7% 51.3% 1.95 -24.5%

Over 3.5 18.7% 29.0% 3.45 -35.5%

BTTS 38.7% 58.8% 1.70 -34.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob38.7%

H 59% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.7%

#2 2–0 13.1%

#3 1–1✓ 11.2%

#4 0–0 10.7%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BKMA1.6

Gandzasar0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.7% · O3.5 PROB 18.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BKMA · PPG 1.00

GANDZASAR · PPG 0.40

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.40)

Win probability 1X2

BKMA (H) 58.8%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +55.8%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -19.0%

Gandzasar (A) 15.9%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -61.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

BKMA face Gandzasar in Armenia - Premier League on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BKMA a 59% chance, the draw 25% and Gandzasar 16%, so BKMA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for BKMA and 0.7 for Gandzasar (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BKMA are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.40 for Gandzasar. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +55.8%. This match finished 1-1.

BKMA vs Gandzasar Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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