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Ararat vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 15:00

Ararat

PPG 0.59 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

UPCOMING

Ararat-Armenia

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 61% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-18.9%0-29.3%0-36.5%0-4+5.5%1 1-04.5%1-19.4%1-29.9%1-36.9%1-4+5.9%2 2-02.4%2-15.0%2-25.3%2-33.7%2-4+3.2%3 3-00.9%3-11.8%3-21.9%3-31.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.6% 10.0% 10.00 +75.6%

Draw 20.6% 20.8% 4.80 -0.7%

Away win 56.7% 80.0% 1.25 -29.1%

Over 2.5 60.3% 61.7% 1.62 -2.3%

Over 3.5 37.3% 42.9% 2.33 -13.1%

BTTS 55.9% 51.3% 1.95 +9.0%

Home O1.5 30.8% 17.4% 5.75 +77.1%

Away O1.5 58.6% 75.2% 1.33 -22.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob55.9%

A 57% / xG 1.1-2.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.3%

#4 0–1 8.9%

#5 2–1 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ararat1.1

Ararat-Armenia2.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ARARAT · PPG 0.59

ARARAT-ARMENIA · PPG 1.80

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

61%

DANGER

xG gap -1.03 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Ararat (H) 22.6%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +75.6%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -0.7%

Ararat-Armenia (A) 56.7%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -29.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ararat face Ararat-Armenia in Armenia - Premier League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ararat a 23% chance, the draw 21% and Ararat-Armenia 57%, so Ararat-Armenia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Ararat and 2.1 for Ararat-Armenia (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ararat are averaging 0.59 points per game versus 1.80 for Ararat-Armenia. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +77.1%.

Ararat vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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