Today / Finland - Kakkonen Group C / TP-47 vs JS Hercules
TP-47 vs JS Hercules Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C
Group C · Matchday 14 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 15:30
// Model verdict
Over 2.5 80% chance
Combined xG of 5.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 75.4% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
H 64% / xG 3.4-1.7 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 70%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.4% · O3.5 PROB 53.4%
Form & verdict
TP-47 · PPG 1.00
JS HERCULES · PPG 0.67
xG gap +1.71 for Home, form 1.00 vs 0.67 - Strong consensus
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
TP-47 face JS Hercules in Finland - Kakkonen Group C on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TP-47 a 64% chance, the draw 17% and JS Hercules 19%, so TP-47 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for TP-47 and 1.7 for JS Hercules (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TP-47 are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.67 for JS Hercules. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +13.9%. This match finished 0-1.