Today / Finland - Kakkonen Group C / TP-47 vs JS Hercules

TP-47 vs JS Hercules Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Group C ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 15:30

TP-47

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

JS Hercules

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 87.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-13.0%0-21.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.9%1-17.5%1-24.7%1-32.0%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.3%2-19.2%2-25.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.0%3-17.6%3-24.8%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-18.4%4+-25.3%4+-32.2%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.7% 65.8% 1.52 -13.8%

Draw 22.3% 23.3% 4.30 -2.5%

Away win 21.0% 23.8% 4.20 -7.1%

Over 2.5 67.0% 87.0% 1.15 -22.9%

Over 3.5 44.3% 68.5% 1.46 -35.3%

BTTS 63.9% — — —

Home O1.5 62.6% — — —

Away O1.5 36.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 21%

ROI -2.4%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.9%

H 57% / xG 2.5-1.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.2%

#2 1–1 7.5%

#3 3–1 7.6%

#4 2–0 7.3%

#5 3–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TP-472.5

JS Hercules1.3

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TP-47 · PPG 1.00

JS HERCULES · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

TP-47 (H) 56.7%

ODDS 1.52 · IMPLIED 65.8% EV -13.8%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV -2.5%

JS Hercules (A) 21.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -7.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

TP-47 face JS Hercules in Finland - Kakkonen Group C on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TP-47 a 57% chance, the draw 22% and JS Hercules 21%, so TP-47 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for TP-47 and 1.3 for JS Hercules (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TP-47 are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.67 for JS Hercules.

TP-47 vs JS Hercules Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Kakkonen Group C Predictions