Today / Finland - Kakkonen Group C / TP-47 vs Vaajakoski

TP-47 vs Vaajakoski Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Group C · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

TP-47

PPG 1.12 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLW

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Vaajakoski

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.0% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-14.5%0-23.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.4%1-19.1%1-26.5%1-33.1%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.5%2-19.3%2-26.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.4%3-16.3%3-24.5%3-32.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-15.1%4+-23.7%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.8% 47.6% 2.10 +0.4%

Draw 22.7% 25.1% 3.98 -5.8%

Away win 29.6% 38.3% 2.61 -13.7%

Over 2.5 65.0% 82.0% 1.22 -20.7%

Over 3.5 43.5% 60.6% 1.65 -28.2%

BTTS 63.2% 80.0% 1.25 -21.0%

Home O1.5 57.8% 67.1% 1.49 -13.9%

Away O1.5 41.2% 60.6% 1.65 -32.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 81%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 26%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.2%

H 48% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 6.5%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TP-472.0

Vaajakoski1.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TP-47 · PPG 1.12

VAAJAKOSKI · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

TP-47 (H) 47.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +0.4%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.98 · IMPLIED 25.1% EV -5.8%

Vaajakoski (A) 29.6%

ODDS 2.61 · IMPLIED 38.3% EV -13.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

TP-47 face Vaajakoski in Finland - Kakkonen Group C on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TP-47 a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Vaajakoski 30%, so TP-47 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for TP-47 and 1.4 for Vaajakoski (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TP-47 are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 1.00 for Vaajakoski. This match finished 4-2.

TP-47 vs Vaajakoski Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Kakkonen Group C Predictions