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GBK vs VPS II Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Group C · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

GBK

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDWD

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

VPS II

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.8% vs bookmaker-implied 89.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-12.4%0-22.2%0-31.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-03.4%1-16.1%1-25.5%1-33.2%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.3%2-17.7%2-26.8%2-34.1%2-4+2.7%3 3-03.6%3-16.4%3-25.7%3-33.4%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-17.3%4+-26.5%4+-33.9%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.8% 45.2% 2.21 +5.6%

Draw 20.5% 24.1% 4.15 -9.0%

Away win 31.8% 41.7% 2.40 -23.7%

Over 2.5 71.8% 89.3% 1.12 -19.6%

Over 3.5 49.5% 71.4% 1.40 -30.7%

BTTS 69.0% 86.2% 1.16 -20.0%

Home O1.5 65.1% 71.4% 1.40 -8.9%

Away O1.5 48.5% 69.4% 1.44 -30.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 81%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 26%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob69.0%

H 48% / xG 2.5-1.8 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.1%

#2 2–1 7.7%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 1–2 5.5%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

GBK2.5

VPS II1.8

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.8% · O3.5 PROB 49.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GBK · PPG 1.50

VPS II · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

GBK (H) 47.8%

ODDS 2.21 · IMPLIED 45.2% EV +5.6%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 4.15 · IMPLIED 24.1% EV -9.0%

VPS II (A) 31.8%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -23.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

GBK face VPS II in Finland - Kakkonen Group C on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives GBK a 48% chance, the draw 21% and VPS II 32%, so GBK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for GBK and 1.8 for VPS II (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, GBK are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.88 for VPS II. This match finished 4-1.

GBK vs VPS II Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Kakkonen Group C Predictions