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JS Hercules vs Jaro 2 Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Group C · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

JS Hercules

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDLW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Jaro 2

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a clear edge.

+12.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-11.4%0-21.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-02.5%1-14.4%1-23.7%1-32.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-03.9%2-16.7%2-25.8%2-33.3%2-4+2.1%3 3-04.0%3-16.9%3-25.9%3-33.4%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-111.5%4+-29.8%4+-35.6%4+-4+3.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.4% 40.8% 2.45 +45.5%

Draw 16.7% 23.5% 4.25 -17.4%

Away win 24.0% 46.5% 2.15 -29.0%

Over 2.5 76.0% 89.3% 1.12 -14.9%

Over 3.5 55.5% 71.9% 1.39 -22.9%

BTTS 69.1% 86.2% 1.16 -19.8%

Home O1.5 78.4% 69.4% 1.44 +12.9%

Away O1.5 48.5% 72.5% 1.38 -33.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 81%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 26%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob69.1%

H 59% / xG 3.1-1.7 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1✓ 6.9%

#2 2–1 6.7%

#3 2–2 5.8%

#4 3–2 5.9%

#5 4–1 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

JS Hercules3.1

Jaro 21.7

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.0% · O3.5 PROB 55.5%

Form & verdict PPG

JS HERCULES · PPG 1.38

JARO 2 · PPG 1.12

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.37 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

JS Hercules (H) 59.4%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +45.5%

Draw 16.7%

ODDS 4.25 · IMPLIED 23.5% EV -17.4%

Jaro 2 (A) 24.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -29.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

JS Hercules face Jaro 2 in Finland - Kakkonen Group C on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives JS Hercules a 59% chance, the draw 17% and Jaro 2 24%, so JS Hercules are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for JS Hercules and 1.7 for Jaro 2 (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, JS Hercules are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.12 for Jaro 2. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +12.9%. This match finished 3-1.

JS Hercules vs Jaro 2 Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Match Preview & Prediction

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