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Huima / Urho vs VPS II Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Group C ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 13:00

Huima / Urho

PPG 2.22 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

VPS II

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.2%0-10.4%0-20.4%0-30.2%0-4+0.2%1 1-01.0%1-11.8%1-21.6%1-31.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-02.2%2-13.9%2-23.5%2-32.1%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.0%3-15.5%3-24.9%3-32.9%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-010.2%4+-118.3%4+-216.4%4+-39.8%4+-4+6.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.9% 69.4% 1.44 -0.8%

Draw 15.4% 21.7% 4.60 -17.5%

Away win 15.7% 22.7% 4.40 -18.6%

Over 2.5 83.1% 83.3% 1.20 -0.3%

Over 3.5 68.6% 66.7% 1.50 +2.9%

BTTS 69.6% 80.0% 1.25 -13.0%

Home O1.5 78.3% 82.0% 1.22 -4.5%

Away O1.5 47.9% 51.0% 1.96 -6.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 81%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 26%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)4.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob69.6%

H 69% / xG 4.2-1.8 / O2.5 83% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–1 5.8%

#2 2–2 3.5%

#3 3–1 5.5%

#4 4–2 5.2%

#5 5–1 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Huima / Urho4.2

VPS II1.8

COMBINED 6.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 83.1% · O3.5 PROB 68.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HUIMA / URHO · PPG 2.22

VPS II · PPG 0.78

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.45 for Home, form 2.22 vs 0.78 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Huima / Urho (H) 68.9%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -0.8%

Draw 15.4%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -17.5%

VPS II (A) 15.7%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -18.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Huima / Urho face VPS II in Finland - Kakkonen Group C on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Huima / Urho a 69% chance, the draw 15% and VPS II 16%, so Huima / Urho are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.2 for Huima / Urho and 1.8 for VPS II (6.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-1. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Huima / Urho are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 0.78 for VPS II. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.9%. This match finished 5-0.

Huima / Urho vs VPS II Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Kakkonen Group C Predictions